Nber business cycle dating social dating sites usa
The group within the NBER that determines the length of recessions made news this week.The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee released a statement saying that it was unable to declare the end of the recession.Measures of income and employment are still weak, and in the case of income the trends are weakening.The second reason is that even though the level of GDP has been growing for two quarters, it remains far below its 2007 peak because the contraction in output was so severe.Even so, the committee clearly felt that the data was not definitive enough to declare the end of the recession.As I noted in January in A View from the NBER Recession Indicators , determining the end of this recession is going to be a difficult task for the committee for two reasons.For example, Watson quoted from the December 2008 press release of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee: Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity.
You’d identify pretty much the same episodes arriving at about the same times with either perspective.He released a letter saying that he strongly disagreed with the committee's decision not to announce the end of the recession because it was obvious that the recession is over. First, he suggested that a double dip in the economy over the near term was "extremely implausible." Second, he noted that based on economic forecasts, the level of GDP should reclaim its 2007 peak level sometime in the second or third quarter of this year.And third, he argued that the shortfall in GDP would need to be implausibly large to bring the level of real GDP from those forecasted levels below last June's trough in economic output.There are a few other episodes where the procedures might have suggested minor changes from the NBER dates, most significant of which is the 2001 recession, which the behavior of individual series suggests might have started in December 2000, while the Bry-Boschan algorithm does not designate this as a recession at all based on Stock and Watson’s monthly GDP measure.But the surprising finding is how little difference there is among the three dating procedures.